Saturday 21 December 2013

Can you really put a number on Immigration?

Iain Duncan Smith has said Britain faces a "crisis" of increased immigration from Romania and Bulgaria, as all three major parties consider their response to the UKIP Eastleigh surge.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_p_qZhLqyl7k86GncPsIG1IFBaasXqHKwIiVL_rFhXx8YswNH_eNkqqAq_rQK1oIr7VkQTvyagfYEyC6upb7lqWLVqL-iqN3TZEzbTqOATaY2_GhsP7Hjhv2y14RBNlJh8nIyjY-dFXxr/s400/immigration.jpgCalled to the Commons to explain how the government plans to deal with new immigrants from within the European Union once some restrictions are lifted next year, the work and pensions secretary said he was working to "tighten up" what benefits were payable to new arrivals.
"There is somewhat of a crisis over this," he said. "Some people want to come here solely to claim benefits."
Duncan Smith told MPs that the this approach was "very damaging to the concept of an EU that works for all its members".
The biggest question that many MPs are asking and some are even trying to audaciously answer is how many Romanians will come to this country next year?

It really depends on who you ask this question. Politicians from a party known for its xenophobia  insist that 29 million Romanians and Bulgarians will invade British shores. Generally I will laugh at these stupid claims, as this figure represents the entire population of both countries combined (stupid UKIP).

Another survey confirmed that 0.56% of Romanians are interested to find jobs in Britain. In both evaluations the total number is 15-20,000 people. Finally, a report commissioned by the UK Government in 2010 estimates that 8,000 Romanians will come to Britain in 2014. From 8,000 to 385,000 it is a huge field open to speculations exploited by tabloid media and UKIP.

14 million EU citizens live today in another EU country. A poll surfaced that Britons massively overestimate the number of foreigners in the country - guessing on average that 31% of the population were immigrants, when the actual figure is 12%, (a bit like the benefits spending) . But no one in the EU migrates more than British people do. According to a 2011 World Bank report, 4.7 million British people live outside their own country, and almost half of them have settled elsewhere in the EU. There are thousands of British people who work in Romania. Surely, if we claim to look for work in another country, they should be able to do the same in ours? That is only fair.

So, how many Romanians will come to Britain in 2014? There will probably be a lot fewer than in the previous years.